Newsflash, It Isn’t the Seventies Anymore


We now live in a time where non discretionary spending and mobile broadbandis a great luxury that many, many people literally cant afford. Why these so-called pundits expect/predict lots of spending from people who no longer have much disposable income is beyond me.

All indications are that our oil-patch jobs wont come back soon, and an unlimited data plan may not come back. Coal is the first casualty of CO2 limits, its dying right now. Oil will be the second and the major oil-producing nations now see that their existing reserves look like wasting assets. The petro-states are desperate to pump, Iran is coming back in line.

The current boom of US oil production is due to fracking, these wells have short lives. In not very long US production will start to plummet, as the fracked wells trickle off; almost no new ones are being drilled to find the cheapest mobile broadband. We need to start shifting to renewables faster, in part to provide jobs, in part so that as the oil production starts to go down we are doing something to prevent our balance of trade from going to heck.

Its actually good for an economy when consumers save. Theres a limit, but its definitely a good thing right now. (Also good if we pay off a little extra household debt.) I doubt the saving will continue for every long. Many people just arent used to having disposable income and were conditioned for years to pour $100 into the gas tank every week or two.

We need a new master bathroom. The folks across the street need a car. Next door theyre fixing to remodel their kitchen. Etc. Were all middle classers whove been holding off, being careful. Give it time and oil prices could turn out to be a wonderful and timely gift for this economy. The low price wont last forever, we know that, but it could last a while.